Typhoon Rolly maintained its strength early Saturday morning as it churned closer towards the Bicol Region, remaining on track to become a super typhoon, state weather bureau PAGASA said.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
Track: On the forecast track, Rolly will continue moving west-southwestward today towards the sea off the coast of Bicol before turning west-northwestward tomorrow early morning. The center of the eye of the typhoon is forecast to pass very close to Catanduanes tomorrow early morning, over the Calaguas Islands, and very close to mainland Camarines Provinces tomorrow morning, and over Polillo Islands and mainland Quezon tomorrow afternoon or early evening. However, due to the proximity of the forecast track to the Bicol Region, a landfall scenario of Catanduanes and Camarines Provinces is not ruled out.
Nevertheless, violent winds and intense rainfall associated with the inner rainband-eyewall region will be experienced over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and the northern portion of Camarines Sur tomorrow early morning through the afternoon and over Quezon and the southern portion of Aurora tomorrow afternoon through evening. After crossing Central Luzon, the center of “Rolly” is forecast to exit the mainland Luzon landmass on Monday morning.
Intensity: Owing to very favorable conditions, there remains a possibility that this typhoon will reach the Super Typhoon category over the next 12 hours. However, Rolly is more likely to be near Super Typhoon strength (185-215 km/h) by the time it grazes the Bicol Region and makes landfall over Quezon.
During its traverse over Luzon, Rolly is forecast to weaken considerably and emerge as a severe tropical storm or minimal typhoon over the West Philippine Sea.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Rainfall: This late evening through tomorrow, the passage of Typhoon Rolly will bring heavy to intense rains over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Burias Island, CALABARZON, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, and Tarlac. Moderate to heavy rains will be experienced over Marinduque, Romblon, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Northern Samar, mainland Cagayan Valley, and the rest of Bicol Region and Central Luzon.
Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
Strong winds: Areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) #2 will be experiencing damaging gale to storm-force winds while those under TCWS #1 will have a strong breeze to near gale conditions during the passage of the typhoon. TCWS #3 (for destructive typhoon-force winds) may be raised over portions of the Bicol Region later today.
Based on the intensity forecast, the highest possible wind signal to be raised will be TCWS #4 (for very destructive typhoon-force winds). Elsewhere, a strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterly will be experienced over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, and the coastal and mountainous areas of Cagayan and Isabela (that are not under TCWS #1).
Storm surge: There is a moderate to high risk of a storm surge of up to 3.0 m over the northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands and up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Aurora, Marinduque, Bicol Region, and Northern Samar and the other coastal areas of Quezon in the next 48 hours which may result in life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation. This storm surge may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Today, rough to phenomenal seas (2.5 to 15.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where TCWS is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under TCWS) and Caraga. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters, especially those under TCWS.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
OTHER TROPICAL SYSTEMS BEING MONITORED
At 7:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression Atsani was estimated at 1,600 km East of Visayas (13.0°N, 140.3°E). It currently has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It is moving west-northwestward at 25 km/h and is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow afternoon. However, it remains less likely to affect any portion of the country over the next 2 to 3 days. It is likely to re-intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours.
Location of eye/center At 7:00 AM today, the eye of Typhoon Rolly was located based on all available data at 540 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes (15.4°N, 128.9°E). Strength Maximum sustained winds of 215 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 265 km/h. Movement Moving Westward at 20 km/h.
24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 80 km North of Virac, Catanduanes (14.3°N, 124.1°E)
48 Hour (Monday morning): 105 km West of Iba, Zambales (15.4°N, 119.0°E)
72 Hour (Tuesday morning): 600 km West of Iba, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.5°N, 114.4°E)
96 Hour (Wednesday morning): 955 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.3°N, 111.1°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Burias Island, and the southeastern portion of Quezon (San Francisco, San Andres, San Narciso, Mulanay, Catanauan, Buenavista, Lopez, Guinayangan, Calauag, Tagkawayan)
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
The rest of Masbate including Ticao Island, the rest of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Marinduque, Romblon, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island, Oriental Mindoro, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, and the southern portion of Isabela (Aurora, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Naguilian, Benito Soliven, San Mariano, Palanan, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Echague, San Agustin, Jones, Cordon, Santiago City, Ramon, San Isidro, Angadanan, Alicia, Cauayan City, Cabatuan, San Mateo).
Northern Samar, the northern portion of Samar (Tagapul-An, Almagro, Santo Nino, Tarangnan, Catbalogan City, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Gandara, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao), the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Taft, Can-Avid, Dolores, Maslog, Jipapad, Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo), and the northern portion of Biliran (Kawayan, Maripipi)
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today by PAGASA.