Tropical cyclone wind signal No. 3 has been raised by the state weather bureau, PAGASA, over Catanduanes before Saturday noon as typhoon “Rolly” rages towards the eastern coast of Luzon.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
Track: On the forecast track, the center of the eye of the typhoon is forecast to pass over Catanduanes – mainland Camarines Provinces area tomorrow morning, and over mainland Quezon tomorrow afternoon.
Violent winds and intense rainfall associated with the inner rainband-eyewall region will be experienced over Catanduanes, Camarines Provinces tomorrow early morning through the afternoon and over Quezon and the southern portion of Aurora tomorrow afternoon through evening. After crossing the Southern Luzon – Metro Manila area, the center of Rolly is forecast to exit the mainland Luzon landmass on Monday morning.
Intensity: Rolly is likely to remain a typhoon category (185-205 km/h) by the time it makes landfall. During its traverse over Luzon, Rolly is forecast to weaken considerably and emerge as a severe tropical storm or minimal typhoon over the West Philippine Sea.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Rainfall: Today, the outer rainbands of Rolly will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. Beginning tomorrow early morning, the passage of Typhoon Rolly will bring heavy to intense rains over Metro Manila, Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Marinduque, and the northern portions Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro.
Moderate to heavy rains will be experienced over Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, Romblon, and the rest of Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro. Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
Strong winds: Destructive typhoon-force winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) #3, damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS #2, and a strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS #1.
Based on the intensity forecast, the highest possible wind signal to be raised will be TCWS #4 (for very destructive typhoon-force winds). Potential impacts of the wind conditions to structures and vegetation under each wind signal are detailed in the TCWS section of this bulletin.
Elsewhere, a strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterly will be experienced over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, and the coastal and mountainous areas of Cagayan and Isabela (that are not under TCWS #1).
Storm surge: There is a high risk of a storm surge of more than 3.0 m over the northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Provinces, and Catanduanes; 2.1 to 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Manila, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, the southeastern coastal area of Batangas and the southwestern coastal area of Quezon; 1.0 to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Aurora, Zambales, Occidental Mindoro, the rest of the coastal areas of Bicol Region, Batangas, and Quezon in the next 24 hours which may result in life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation. This storm surge may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast.
Hazards affecting coastal waters
Today, rough to phenomenal seas (2.5 to 15.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where TCWS is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under TCWS) and Caraga. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters, especially those under TCWS.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
OTHER TROPICAL SYSTEMS BEING MONITORED
At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression Atsani was estimated at 1,655 km East of Southern Luzon (13.4°N, 139.5°E). It currently has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It is moving northwestward at 25 km/h and is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow afternoon. However, it remains less likely to affect any portion of the country over the next 2 to 3 days. It is likely to re-intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours.
Location of eye/center At 1:00 PM today, the eye of Typhoon Rolly was located based on all available data at 410 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes (14.8°N, 127.8°E). Strength Maximum sustained winds of 215 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 265 km/h. Movement Moving West Southwestward at 15 km/h.
24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): In the vicinity of Lupi, Camarines Sur (13.9°N, 122.9°E)
48 Hour (Monday morning): 225 km West of Iba, Zambales (15.1°N, 117.9°E)
72 Hour (Tuesday morning): 675 km West of Iba, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.2°N, 113.7°E)
96 Hour (Wednesday morning): 1,035 km West of Subic, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.8°N, 110.7°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #3 (121-170 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 18 hours)
Catanduanes, the northeastern portion of Camarines Sur (Tinambac, Siruma, Goa, Tigaon, Sagnay, San Jose, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Presentacion, Caramoan, Sagnay), and the northeastern portion of Albay (Tiwi, Malinao, Tabaco City, Malilipot, Santo Domingo, Bacacay, Rapu-Rapu)
TCWS #2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
The southeastern portion of Laguna (Santa Maria, Famy, Mabitac, Pakil, Siniloan, Pangil, Paete, Kalayaan, Lumban, Cavinti, Pagsanjan, Luisiana, Majayjay, Magdalena, Santa Cruz, Pila, Liliw, Nagcarlan, Rizal, Victoria, Calauan, San Pablo City, Alaminos, Bay), Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, the rest of Camarines Sur, the rest of Albay, Sorsogon, the northern portion of Masbate (Mobo, Milagros, Masbate City, Baleno, Aroroy, Mandaon, Balud) including Ticao and Burias Islands, Marinduque, and Romblon
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
The rest of Masbate, Rizal, the rest of Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island, Oriental Mindoro, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, and the southern portion of Isabela (Aurora, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Naguilian, Benito Soliven, San Mariano, Palanan, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Echague, San Agustin, Jones, Cordon, Santiago City, Ramon, San Isidro, Angadanan, Alicia, Cauayan City, Cabatuan, San Mateo)
The northern portion of Samar (Tagapul-An, Almagro, Santo Nino, Tarangnan, Catbalogan City, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Gandara, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao), the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Taft, Can-Avid, Dolores, Maslog, Jipapad, Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo), and Biliran
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today by PAGASA.